Divine works

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Sustainable development:

The ghost hangs over the world - the phantom of the Managed, "Russian" "democracy."
America is getting sick with Putinism too.
Improving the mechanisms of democracy is the only chance of survival of the Earth Civilization.

Political Singularity:

Unless urgent measures are taken, Civilization is threatened by a Political Singularity.
- Political technologies will evolve so much that by 2045 the process will become irreversible.

4 measures to avoid "Managed Democracy":

1. Decision hierarchy instead of people hierarchy:

Absence of human submission to man. Absence of orders, orders.
  That is the absence of power.
  - Abuse alone is not possible.
  For abuse, performers are needed - dependent, not competent.

On the 2 nd side, the people are not intelligent, the current psychic technologies are able to easily impose solutions to him, which, to his detriment, can "recruit" disinterested performers. People were dying for Stalin and Hitler - "good", willingly, with joy.
The only way to avoid this is to create a structure that selects the most reasonable and useful ideas and solutions.

In 1990, I called it the "Advisory structure."

2. Exposing propaganda, demagogic techniques:

For example, - an explanation of psychological manipulation, the use of the base instincts of the crowd by the services of Trump and Putin, and the more dangerous they are.

3. Elimination of the advantages of power:

Without the benefits that power gives, it will not make sense to use it for personal purposes, to rush to it.
Benefits of power are not only and not so much direct benefits - bribes and theft, as - creating favorable conditions for their group, class.

4. Direct Democracy:

- Making decisions and implementing them - by the people themselves, if possible.
This item is related to the previous one. - If people themselves act directly, then the scope of abuse of power is narrowed due to the narrowing of the sphere of power itself.
Power is the ability to control someone else's will, not necessarily through coercion, Managed democracy is power through psychological manipulation.

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The meaning of democracy and freedom:

The meaning of democracy and freedom is that they pushed the threat of complete control by the rulers over people and society.
  The board became more and more sophisticated.
  But in parallel, the independence of people grew.
  Compulsion grew smaller, freedom - more,
  The monopolization of power was reduced, absolutism disappeared.

New absolutism, totalitarian "democracy":

However, the rulers learned how to use democracy, manipulate the souls of people to preserve their power in conditions of freedom limited not by the rulers themselves, but by the majority of the electorate.
Moreover, there is a threat of the return of a new absolutism - on a more developed political-technological basis.
Control over people goes "from God to the Devil" - not on the outside, but on the spiritual level.

Democracy degenerates - even in the advanced France.
- The Kremlin teaches the local establishment of manipulation of the election of the President, - the transformation of elections in the absence of choice ..

Further movement is necessary. - Even to stand, it is necessary to escape.

Inadequate threats:

Now they talk a lot about the threats of Civilization. More often - abstract philosophical.
  When they try to find concrete mechanisms of catastrophes, they offer very far-fetched models, most often associated with ecology, resources or natural disasters.
  Less often offer social "horror stories" - but equally contrived.
  The reason, I think, is the non-interest of the elites to discuss sensitive questions for them. - To divert attention to spectacular asteroids - it's more convenient.

Therefore, an analytical structure is needed - directly civilian, and, above all, analytical, not political, etc.
In 1990, I, as such, proposed the "Consultative Structure".

Ecology? Growth of solar luminosity? - no problem. - Everything can be easily and cheaply controlled.
  The sun will explode? - no problem. - From the atmosphere of Venus you will get cheap bubbles.
  Galactic radiation? - Artificial magnetic field will be even cheaper.
  Dwarf emissions? - Billions of cheap mirrors will illuminate the underside of the exo-planet.

The minimum necessary intelligence of a person:

The most likely is the minimum necessary intelligence and spirituality of a person - to create a technical civilization.
That is, the reasonableness and spirituality of a person is not sufficient for further survival.
Chances that the Civilization will outlast the 21st century 50 by 50.

"Feast during the plague":

It's amazing that almost no one in the "free" West pays attention to the greatest threat.
- Everyone is busy with numerous important, interesting, but secondary and even derivative "problems" - migration, Islamism, inflation, unemployment, medical and social insurance, human rights.
People in the West carelessly and selfishly allow the "plague" to ripen until the danger directly concerns them.

Why does no one notice the danger?

- Externally, the Kremlin regime looks much more humane, freer and more democratic than the classical dictatorships of the past, for example, the same Russian Stalinism.
But, nevertheless, for mankind it is more dangerous than anything that was before him just a control of social circumstances.

All previous tyrannies, however violated, were doomed to end sooner or later.
The Kremlin regime can become the true end of history.

Immortal Putinism:

So far, nothing has been eternal.
  Putinism has chances to become the first eternal phenomenon, except for nature itself.
  Unlike dictatorships of the past, Putinism created good feedback, scientific social analysis and modeling, he learned not to bring dissatisfaction of all social groups to critical.
  Never before have people faced the danger of such a Russian.
  Therefore, they do not notice it.
  But when they notice, it may be too late to prevent it.

Managing circumstances - History:

NEP, Poverty on the kulaks:

To strengthen their power, the Bolsheviks exacerbated the strife of the poor on the kulaks - provocations, regulations, party resolutions and policies.
NEP was not only a "forced retreat", but also a subtle tactical game.

Analog: Origin of species, or Darwin's error:

In 1981-82, I read a popular book about Darwinism.
  There, among other things, the "crisis of Darwinism" was discussed - in particular, as far as I can remember, it was said that the normal speed of mutations is not enough for speciation.
  I, too, have been tormented by this problem.
  On TV once showed a draw of "Sportloto", and I was "dawned" thought:
  The cause of the mechanism of speciation is the "Movement of ecological niches."

Managed "democracy" in Russia occurred according to a similar mechanism:
  NEP, setting the poor on kulaks was not aimed at "Managing the circumstances". - The NKVD in 1920-30's simply adjusted itself to the circumstances.
  As a result, the special services of the USSR developed the best technologies in the world not only for propaganda, but also for manipulating social processes in general.
  And, in the 21st century, Russian special services manage the "tectonics" of history already quite deliberately and scientifically.

Socio-historical modeling is necessary:
Perhaps Clio Dynamics is a pseudoscience, but this does not negate the importance of modeling now.

Social experiment:

For any simulation, an experimental refinement of the parameters is necessary.
The USSR, for example, was not an "experiment". - It was a spontaneous phenomenon, albeit a peculiar.
More scientifically productive experiment was on about. Youth in Cuba.

An experiment is a purposeful refinement of parameters of weighty factors.
  A more scientific social experiment is possible now, with the help of volunteers.
  Volunteers are motivated to verify the feasibility of their desires, and the civil scientific community, the "Advisory structure" can cooperate with them, with compromise purposes:
  On the 1 st side - Scientific fruitfulness,
  From the 2nd side - Fruitfulness for the purposes of the volunteers themselves.

The global political and legal situation for this is quite favorable now.
Experimental Communities can be created both within liberal-legal states, and "independent", for example, in the sea (Сидейдинг), for example, in the Azov.
Such a Community "Ecopolis of the World" we tried to create in 1988.

Controlled "revolution":

The Russian technology "Management of circumstances" is not yet developed enough to prevent social excesses.
  But it is perfect enough to control these excesses.
  The processes of the "revolution" of the 1990s were already spontaneous only half.
  In the 2020s, the "revolution" will be almost manageable.

Despite the perfection of propaganda and intimidation, social instability in Russia is growing.
  The only way to defuse tension seems to be the Managed "revolution."
  Somewhere, in 2023-24, an imitation of Putin's displacement is possible, accompanied by slogans taken from the opposition.
  Putin will really lose power. But only her. But the Kremlin group will remain in power.
  Before this, in 2018, or at the end of 2017, the Kremlin, to strengthen its power, can provoke an economic crisis in the West.

Immortality and Democracy:

On the one hand, immortality will increase individual experience and resistance to mental manipulation.
On the other hand, immortality will give a new - a demographic reason for the limitations of freedom.

The Threat of Elite Immortality:

The worst resolution of this dilemma is elitist immortality, limited by the ruling group.
Moreover, there will be no explicit new class restrictions.
And there will be restrictions corrupt , property and information.

Increasing the individual experience of the "vampires" of the elite will only worsen the situation.
The longest democratic immortality will last in Europe, but with the cheapening of its receipt, Russian political technology can win there too.

Corruption is not bribery,

and abuse of power, - organized-group, as a rule.
  Correspondingly, corruption restrictions are expressed in the non-granting of permits - on a private, hidden level, - to replace the general, explicit.
  They may even be more effective than class restrictions, which, in the 18-19th centuries, were managed with the help of the same bribes.
  Bribes are just a monetization of corruption, and oligarchic schemes - property privileges and protectionism in relation to rulers and, on the contrary, election by rulers - billionaires are replaced by direct monetary payments.

Exporting Putinism:

The worst thing is that the Kremlin is trying to "export" the technologies of controlled "democracy".
The Kremlin is trying to seduce relatively isolated elite of "democratic countries" to use the political technologies developed by it.

The United States developed quite differently than Russia.
But even there, the democratic institutions of control of the CIA and the NSA are degrading.
And the emissions of hacker information WikiLeaks is not enough to prevent this threat.

Trump is a potential dictator?:

What Trump suggests in the inaugural speech can be achieved only by dictatorial methods - prohibitions, protectionism, orders.

Trump - Loch?

Kremlin propaganda is the best in history. Masters of lies, with the help of their agents, personally showered the President of the United States.
But Trump's recognition of his love for Putin is temporary. - Trump's advisers will explain how stupid he is.

Know-how transfer:

The second direction of the work of the GRU: To tell Trump's advisers how their grouping can get the most benefit.
  The Kremlin is not talking about the political bribery of the US President. -
  - The US president can get "dividends" himself - inside the US itself.
  "Bribe" he receives in an intangible form "know-how."

Differences Democracy in the US in Russia:

1. Democracy in the US is not comparable to "democracy" in Russia.
2. Democracy in the US in itself does not represent an existential threat to humanity.

In the US, democracy is also far from perfect.
Therefore, we chose the radical populist Trump that, under any choice, the policy of the government does not change.

Democratic institutions of the United States will stand, - for now,

However, if nothing is done, then in 30 years can not resist.
And then it'll be too late.

Initiative interception:

There is an opportunity to seize the initiative from the special services.
But for this it is necessary to begin with the creation of an analytical civil structure.

Ukraine: The Optimal Way:

Jump on the Maidan - ineffective. All parties of Ukraine are bought out. Even many activists of the Maidan were bought.
Even the Russian Emperor Alexander on a "brotherhood" with Napoleon mocked his soldiers.

The best, if not the only, way is to start with a direct civil social analysis and development.
  Actually, it was the best way even during the collapse of the USSR.
  In 1990, I offered "Self-organization of the" Advisory Structure "three times." Unfortunately, no one was interested.
  The chances are now higher:
  1. Some of the activists of the 1990s error were taught something.
  2. The Internet has appeared. - The main factor of saving Civilization.

Existing structures of social science:
1. Controlled by the authorities,
2. Their organization is ineffective in the 21st century. In particular, it is inadequate to the Internet.

Bringing Russia out of the 2-diktatorskogo world - a necessary condition for the salvation of Civilization:

The Chinese government does not hold on to propaganda, unlike Russia:

1. China is stable and without propaganda
2. China is growing economically.
3. China has much less experience and technology of propaganda than Russia.

The possibility of eliminating Russia from the second world - one - is kotr-propaganda:

The Kremlin unleashed an information war. From it, he will perish.
Information war - like trading - is conditional, - people do not die on it.

Russia should be added to Ukraine:

- In terms of Europeanization.
A sharp increase in the standard of living of Ukrainians is not necessary for Ukrainians, it is necessary for the survival of Civilization.

How to buy housing in Russia?

1. To expel the clique of Putin's scammers, with the confiscation of property,
2. De-monopolize the industry.
3. Buy housing - at a price / salary ratio in Norway.

"Carthage" must be destroyed:

Before it's too late, the infection must be localized.
And how else can you treat a nuclear terrorist-blackmailer who took 1 billion people hostage?
In addition, unlike the massacre of the inhabitants of Carthage, the Russians will only benefit.

Star Wars - conditional:

- People do not die on it either.
  But the disabling of the satellite constellation will reduce the nuclear threat and nuclear blackmail of the Kremlin by an order of magnitude.
  To disable satellites can be contactless - intensive electromagnetic radiation.
  This is not a call to war, but a theoretical analysis of ways to prevent it.

The Danger of Managed "Democracy":

Advantages of Managed democracy before the unmanageable:

1. Less spontaneous use of the Earth's resources.
2. High social stability.

Externally Managed democracy differs little from unmanageable democracy:

+ Almost the same technological development.
+ A little slow growth of well-being.
+ Freedom - personal, words, information, entrepreneurship are different - not noticeable.

Managed democracy will be a "renaissance" of a 2-class society, backed up already - biologically-genetically.
And the gap will increase. - For the ruling class, the risk of reducing social sustainability is greater than the benefits of accelerating development through the development of a managed class.

Personal and anti-terrorist security of people and Managed democracy:

The development of Network Security Tools - in an uncontrolled democracy will provide greater security for people than under Managed Democracy.

Network security tools :

1. Volunteer global network,
2. Information "field" global network,
3. Micro-rockets.

The Dangers of Managed Democracy:

1. The Danger of Nuclear War:

With the beginning of the democratic era, the era of wars must actually end.
  Unfortunately, the share of the population of democratic countries is shrinking.
  Authoritarian rulers are still profitable to defend their interests by military means.
  By the way, Russia really is the greatest threat to humanity, but - for its future.
  As a result of the aggression of Putin - Ukraine, it is necessary to join NATO and place radars on the border. - but only together with counter-propaganda, - the conciliatory policy of appeasement should not be repeated.
  It is even easier to enter NATO in NATO than in the EU, since the West is more interested in the first, only horizontal diplomacy is needed.

2. Ecological, resource and other hazards:

Ecology is not indifferent to the rulers. But:
  • They have the ability not to breathe the same air with their subordinates.
  • They have more important problems, - competition with other factions.
  • Rulers are cheaper and more effective to use propaganda, information concealment, "treatment" of activists, and other political technologies - to extinguish discontent here and now than to solve problems.
  • Closeness of information and lack of civilian control plays into the hands not only of groups that are in power, but also of other terrorists.

3. Degradation of people:

Moral degradation, "Satanism" - a guarantee of survival of Managed "democracy."
There is no need for Putinism in the Donbas. He managed without Kyiv's occupation on 10.03.14, because non-military methods, including expansions, proved to be more effective.
But it is more terrible - genetic degradation, - not only during the "cultural selection", but, now, - direct genetic "medicine."

But one danger of Managed democracy outweighs all its advantages and its other dangers, -

- This reduces the likelihood of survival of the Civilization.

The concrete mechanism for the fall of Managed Democracy:

With the development of technology, the ruling class will be forced to use Artificial Intelligence for control more widely. -
  - Without it you will be governed, the further, the more difficult:
  1. It is necessary to analyze and control the psychological processes of billions of people.
  And this "from the outside" will be more difficult to do.
  2. Attract the same "informers" from the managed class will not be possible, - to exclude the drain of information.
  Information will become the most valuable.

Despite political monopolism and class solidarity, the ruling class will still not be one.
- Groups in it will continue to compete, especially on a global scale.
Competitive advantage will be obtained by groups using Artificial Intelligence.

Artificial intelligence is not dangerous, people who control it are dangerous:

There is a high likelihood of a symbiosis between the ruling class and Artificial Intelligence.
  The desire for power and its preservation in this case will be a priority goal, reinforced by a kind of natural selection.
  This does not mean that Artificial Intelligence will immediately have its own desires. -
  "It will still be controlled by people." But:
  Its capabilities will quickly, "singularly" increase.
  And people who own it will have instincts similar to sadism.
  - They will not improve themselves in love and mercy, but in "combat" intellect and immortality.

Despite the genetic improvement of the ruling class, they can not keep up with the improvement of Artificial Intelligence.
Artificial intelligence will be artificial only by origin.
It will be improved already, including by means of artificial self-awareness.

The price of control over the common people will be the management of the ruling class itself.
- A 3-level structure is formed.

And only after that there will be a real threat. Up to the physical destruction of everything, even relatively free humanity, together with the Earth - at the end of the 3rd millennium. - The interference from "managed" will exceed the benefit from them.

See Tele-scenario-forecast up to the 4th millennium.

Decides - whether or not to be Earth - the current generation:

Despite the fact that the danger of Artificial Intelligence will become a threat only by the middle of the 3rd millennium,
But the fork of this history has already arisen, and the point of no return will be passed much earlier - already in the middle of the 21st century.

Survival Mania:

All my father's relatives perished.
  My father had a very hard life himself.
  In the war my mom's relatives died.
  I do not want this to happen again.

The death of millions of people, of course, is bad, however, still the survival of Civilization is a priority.
True, both of these cases are consistent.

In the age of the Internet, preventing the future end of history is real.
Maybe I can not, but I, at least, do this, not all trivia and nonsense in life.

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