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the Danger 2024:

Danger 2018:

"Direct armed conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States.
   The rout of the column ... Refinery al-Isba, Konako deposit ... February 7-8, 2018.
   In the area of three hundred dead ... "

"2 versions:

1. "Right-Putin" circles organized a provocation so that, within the framework of the policy of avoiding new sanctions, they would not be pushed back by the "moderate" from power.
   2. Putin, seeing a new wave of pressure on his regime, ... showed moderate in his environment that "who dared - the two ate", as it was in August 2008 and in August 2014. "

the danger of provocation 2018 seems to have passed - Putin's rating remained high enough.

it is Better to think from the position of Putinists:
Putin's rating is blown, as is Gaddafi's rating. - today 90%, and tomorrow – 0%.
A rating of good to raise propaganda and little of a victorious war.
The effectiveness of propaganda falls - now is not 1933, the Internet ruins everything.
For small victorious wars same ended "traitors." -
Traitors are Balts, Georgians, Ukrainians.
On "their" dictators, like Nazarbayev attack-weaken all.

method of provocation and long-range traitors:

there are, however, distant traitors, like the Syrian opposition.
And the method of raising the rating is even more effective than a small victorious war.
This is provocation. -
In the far traitors do not have to send your troops. -
Enough work of the security services.
Moreover, the open work, the People declare: "Yes, we can help, and see the consequences of disobedience."

in addition, provocation – is just a specialization of the Putinists.
The method of provocation is well established in the Donbas.
And there are plenty of places in the world.

the Main enemy:

Danger 2024 is that, once in the "corner", Putinist can be tempted to provocation – not against the "six", and against their real enemies – Western democracies.
The Putinists, in contrast to the Communists, - good analytical and modeling services. -
The instability of their regime they can calculate quite reliably.

Why 2024? - Presidential elections in Russia, the end of the cycle of stability of Putin's regime and the economic cycle in the West.
Although the beginning may be in 2023.

Oil wars:

Provocation against the Western democracies it is more expedient to carry out in the form of economic sabotage.
Putinists are symmetrical. The CIA bribed someone at the CPSU Central Committee. -
GRU tried to bribe trump's advisers.
The CIA conspired with the king of Saudi Arabia and brought down oil prices. -
The GRU armed Saddam Hussein to seize Arab oil. -
The Soviet Union began to disintegrate in time. - The crisis is more dangerous than the Caribbean.
The attack on Kuwait was the" dead hand " of the USSR.

the Western democracies are too weak and unstable place. – financial market. -
We can provoke him to collapse.
For example, by means of a symmetrical jump in oil prices.
Economic diversion is easier to start with the usual diversion.