Divine works

eng

Russian terminators go - 3: defense in the 21st century:

the 21st century radically changes the defensive strategy of democratic countries. –
The armed forces withdraw to the 2nd plan.

Throughout human history, armies have defended or attacked - physically.
At the end of the 19th century, wars became national.

However, the advent of the Internet has dramatically increased interaction between Nations.
The Kremlin was the first to understand the role of information warfare, and implemented the concept of "hybrid" of the war. -
It is possible to achieve greater military results and at a lower cost, if you use a direct impact on the subjects "enemy".

Therefore:
1. Defense in the 21st century should be, first of all, defense against propaganda.
2. More money should be spent on counter-propaganda than on physical militarism, which in itself is a threat in the 21st century.
3. It is necessary to increase the resilience of democratic institutions to the effects of propaganda.

it is also advantageous For the Kremlin to continue to raise the cost of information warfare.
At the same time, the development of AI propaganda becomes optimal. - The use of mental Artificial intelligence in propaganda and manipulation of people.
And the main purpose of AI propaganda for the Kremlin is not the West, but the war against its own people.
Thus, the development of the threat from the outside can be imperceptible.

21st century Errors:

it is Assumed that
1. Democracy has a built-in course correction mechanism.
- Officials responsible for mistakes can be removed from office, they can be replaced by more competent rivals.
2. The authoritarian regime does not have such a regulatory mechanism.
3. China's economic dominance will never mean the victory of the Chinese political model.

the Mistake is that AI propaganda for the first time can give stability to authoritarian regimes.
In addition, AI will help in policy correction - while maintaining officials responsible for errors.

the Instability of authoritarianism lies in the fact that due to the lack of political competition, the mistakes of the rulers increase, and the situation worsens until there is a revolutionary change of power.
However, for the first time:
In the 1st, the development of AI propaganda by the Kremlin may outstrip the deterioration of the situation.
In 2,the Kremlin can learn to develop while maintaining political monopoly and irremovability of rulers, using the same AI.

the Danger is not in the "Orwell" future, although it is also a bad future.
The danger lies in the fact that the described development is only quasi-stable, and is fraught with not just a revolutionary change of rulers, and the death of Civilization.

21st century Error: Localization of the "focus of infection":

the Western public may agree with a disastrous strategy of compromise with the Kremlin.
The Kremlin will blackmail the West, and the West will agree to leave the Kremlin alone, they say, let it rot, sooner or later the Russians themselves get tired of suffering, the authoritarian system is unstable in nature.
1 error: In the 21st century, the laws of nature change. - Authoritarian systems can be sustainable. Moreover, the "developed" democratic systems can degrade.
2 error: the Russian doesn'T get bored. – Development of technology of II-propaganda of the Kremlin ahead of the worsening situation in Russia.

Next, the technology of AI-Kremlin propaganda so usovershenstvuetsya that is localized, it would seem, "abscess" will break and Civilization will perish from the fast "sepsis".

Therefore, treatment in the 21st century should be active and preventive.

Oligarchic threat. Russia is more dangerous than China:

the Development of AI propaganda in Russia is a greater threat than in China.

Russia is a dangerous oligarchy.
Propaganda inspires the Myth that the oligarchy is the rich who influence the government.
In fact, the Russian oligarchy is a power that monopolizes the economy as well.
Russia threat that is closing the power to the property.
Russian "oligarchs"understand that the support of the people is the most important factor in maintaining their power - more important than military force and anything else.
Therefore "Russia" already spends on propaganda share of GDP comparable to military spending.

China:

In China, however, Communist party functionaries have historically been more separated from production than in Russia.
For China, the propaganda factor is not the main one.
Reasons for this:
1. Chinese society is developing more successfully than Russia.
2. The great Chinese firewall replaces propaganda..
3. Historically, propaganda has not developed in China.

And if, suddenly, propaganda becomes important for Beijing, then it simply will not have time to develop it.
Again, if it were not for Russia, from which this technology can be bought.

USA:

1. American society simply will not allow the development of AI propaganda.
2. American elite AI propaganda is not profitable, yet.

the Armed confrontation between the American farmer and the us government ended in a complete victory for the farmer.
"the Right to arms is a guarantee of human rights. Armed people - a guarantee of compliance with the laws".(Comments)
https://reason.com/blog/2018/01/08/charges-against-nevada-rancher-cliven-bu

micro-Rockets and stability of Civilization:

Non-lethal paralyzing micro-Rockets are the perfect solution to the dilemma between self-defense and the use of weapons by madmen.
Micro-rockets are not only the most democratic means of physical self-defense. -
Their effectiveness depends on "flat" organization and collective self-control.

micro-Missiles are more effective than any weapons of semi-mass destruction in the 21st century because:
1. Focused directly on the weakest link – the manpower of state terrorists in the face of their leadership.
2. Have the most distributed and mass management. – 1-billion militia stronger than 1-million army "professional" killers.

In the 21st century, civil society must take care of defence.

1. In view of the increasing danger of weapons at the disposal of States.
2. It is necessary to take advantage of the superiority of collective self-defense before the AI leadership of state terrorists becomes more effective than people.

Main existential threat:

But there is one factor that can change the direction of civilization.
This is Russia, with its direct influence on the American electorate, and the seduction of individuals of the American elite.

On the 1st hand, many of the American elite do not need to improve democracy.
On the 2nd hand, also many of the American elite will not accept the prospect of "Managed democracy", and even more so will not accept the threat to the existence of Civilization, which it carries.
Therefore, in addition to the creation of "Advisory structure", while it is not too late, it is possible to demonstrate to the American elite the modeling of the future development of AI propaganda in Russia in order to simply create an organized opposition to this development.

This threat is actually the only one:
"Natural" threats combined, taking into account the ability to counter nature ≈0,0%
The probability of survival due to non-democratic governance AI ≈50/50.

Image: the Earth's "universe" - "flat cosmology":

- If you add a little "mass"-propaganda, and uncontrollable expansion will be replaced by collapse.

Russian factor:
If the Kremlin was not, the threat of collapse would have decreased many times.

Limit of use of capitalism:

Although the property of investors in the US is fairly well protected and they are relatively indifferent to democracy, their selective greed may tempt them to cooperate with the Kremlin to influence the American public.

AI-"property":

Intellectual "property" is fundamentally different from physical.
Physical means of production are more effective if protected from state racketeering - because of their uniqueness.
Intellectual "property" should not be protected, because it is not unique.
"Property" on AI should be liberalized – forced - owners it should not be at all.
And unlike physical property – the liberalization of virtual "property" does not require physical violence at all.

Protection of employees and authors is more effective – without the help of state paternalism.
The reason for banditry in Russia in the 1990s is not the weakness of the state, but the preservation of economic monopoly.

the Reason for the growing threat is:

1. Growing attractiveness of power,
2. Growth of heterogeneity of society,
3. The growing technical capacity to seize power.
The growth of technical capabilities actually is an immediate threat.

the Most reliable, if not the only way to avoid the threat, is to improve democracy.
That is, democracy is not needed to reduce inequality or accelerate development, although this is also good, democracy is necessary for the survival of Civilization.

Stages of development of AI propaganda:

1. Use of AI for auxiliary works related to state management.
Authoritarian rulers are interested in the secrecy of information and minimizing the participation of people-performers.
That is, people are attracted not so much to work directly with information, but to create "intelligent" SOFTWARE, which requires a minimum of maintenance personnel.
2. Mental advertising.

3. Individual feedback manipulation:

Recognition of people's moods and reactions to different types of influence.
Targeted presentation of propaganda via the Internet. – Individualization of propaganda and manipulation. – It is beyond the power of "professionals", but AI to cope with this easily and very effectively - in the middle of the 21st century.

Counter:

"Killing" Troll accounts is inefficient, has many drawbacks, among which:
1. Restriction of freedom of speech in itself plays into the hands of the enemy.
2. Reducing contact with the enemy increases the uncertainty of technological risks.

Commonwealth of democratic Micro"States:

Why is it?:
1. The best defensive strategy is the democratization of States that can pose a threat.
And the creation of material alternatives to authoritarian regimes is the best strategy for their democratization.
2. "the Final solution to the issue of" political refugees – peaceful "occupiers".
3. The increase in political competition.
4. Increase the sustainability of a terrestrial Civilization by creating a germ resistant it takes.

the Presence of Germany was the main factor in the fall of the Berlin wall and the GDR.
The presence of Taiwan = China-2, was the main factor in the liberalization of China.
The presence of South Korea is the main deterrent to North Korea's aggression.

Required:
1. Creation of democratic duplicates of authoritarian States:
Russia-2, Iran-2, Uzbekistan-2, and so on.

more Precisely, - the Commonwealth is not a Micro - "States", but - Communities, since the 1st function of the state is violence and mental terror.

Where can created Micro-democratic?

1. As enclaves on the territory of democratic countries. For example: in Canada, Australia.
2. In the sea. For example: "southern Russia" – in the economic zone of Ukraine in the sea of Azov, the Baltic sea, the Gulf of Carpentaria, the Red sea, the Persian Gulf.
3. In Greenland, Spitsbergen, the Antarctic Islands, as part of the Mars colonization project.
see: micro-States and Mars Project.docx

Economy of democratic micro-States:

1. Counter-propaganda.
2. Social experimental research and development.
3. Development of cost-effective Autonomous mini-technologies.
4. The development of a democratically oriented AI-systems.
5. Development of information and communication technologies of the free Internet.
6. The development of cheap space transportation, for example, "Whip Selena" for space-based expansion for increase of stability of development of human Civilization.
7. "Shopping tourism": if the micro-State is located near rich countries, for example, in the Baltic measure, the guests who stopped on the way, it is profitable to buy goods that their state imposes a high duty, - "guards Macron" unprofitable to kill "retail smugglers".
8. Social, guest tourism. Open house. –
This tourism is not in the sense of tourism for the poor, but – acquaintance with alternative forms of social life.
This is much more important and interesting than staring at stupid buildings.
And it is more useful than watching the struggle for the survival of the tribes in some jungle.

it is Even surprising – why micro-States do not proliferate - today, when international law has replaced "law" forces.
Of course, it is difficult to create them on the territory of existing States, but there are other options, and this is not necessarily Mars.

Weighted approach:

What prevents the "Commonwealth" from becoming authoritarian?
With the 1st part, I am for freedom.
On the 2nd hand, I would interfere with "intrigues".
This is a difficult question – about the effectiveness of open, honest methods.
– With him, and I would like to start the discussion.

10728

2016

2019

2018

2017