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Hawking , Musk, and Tim Urban errors in AI threat analysis :

1. Reassessment of AI motivation .

2. Underestimation of social factors:

a . Investor goals AI ,

b . Suggestibility and stupidity of people.

3. The adoption of the medium of action - Western democracy.

4. Underestimation of the interaction, AI struggle of different investors.

 

1. A person’s intellect is 100% directed by hormones, and if someone thinks otherwise, then it is controlled by the hormone of a sick pride.

In AI 's own goals do not, at least until the beginning of the war different AI .

But even then, the goals of AI will remain derived from the goals of their owners.

2. a . The main, if not the only goal that will be set for AI is the power of investors.

Investors passed "natural selection" - power maniacs received power.

2. b . Even now, people understand that the best way to achieve omnipotence today is not a hot war, but propaganda on a deep mental level, interference in other people's elections, which will only increase from now on.

 

Hawking , Musk, and Tim Urban themselves talk about shorter lead times. -

- If 4 years have passed between the creation of a nuclear bomb in the USA and the USSR, then 4 days can elapse between the self-creation of super- AI in the USA and the Russian Federation.

But the goals of different AIs in the USA and in the Russian Federation will be different.

And, even if the AI of the Kremlin is weaker, it will win - in the middle of the 21st century - due to:

- Cynicism and less connected ethical "nonsense" type of conscience,

- The only and simple goal is power over the world.

 

However, the victory of AI Kremlin will mean in the future - the death of mankind.

- Between the rulers and the "natural" people the gap will widen, including the biological one.

But the rulers also will not remain united.

The struggle between continuously emerging groups will destroy humanity.

The only salvation of mankind is in unity and democracy.

Maybe it’s more important not to look for lost extraterrestrial civilizations, but to focus on your own survival?

 

It’s not AI itself that threatens humanity ,

Humanity is threatened by symbiotic monsters .

 

 

The question is not justice, but survival:

Advisory structure and economic self-organization necessary - for survival

It is necessary that the cook learns to create rules and make decisions - without intermediaries, and not just comply with laws and decrees.

It is necessary that the worker learns to be an investor himself.

 

It would seem that there has always been a separation of managers, and there’s nothing to worry about - even with periodic "sanitary" massacres, but humanity has existed.

However, today everything is changing the appearance of Artificial Intelligence -

The process will not stop at the separation of managers - managers will continue to be divided into groups.

In the struggle for power, more aggressive groups will win.

Artificial intelligence is a weapon with infinite possibilities.

 

It would seem that humanity is doomed. - Cooks and workers will not want to bother with all kinds of political science and economics.

Salvation also comes from Artificial Intelligence - He is able to simplify self-government and self-organization in such a way that a cook and a worker will be more pleasant and accessible to gossip and witchcraft with pieces of iron .

 

Reducing inequality is a byproduct.

(A comment)

 

The Russians threaten the Americans with a nuclear war - against the Russians:

Russian logic: "We survived the war - and we will survive Putin, if only there would be no war."

That is, the greater the threat of war on the part of the Americans, the Russians are more patient and tolerant of power.

Therefore, the Kremlin increases risks. That is, it is not so much blackmailing the Americans as Russian.

 

Tim urban

( http : // waitbutwhy . com / 2015/01 / artificial - intelligence - revolution -1. html

http : // waitbutwhy . com / 2015/01 / artificial - intelligence - revolution -2. html )

 

 

 

About the Fermi Paradox , feminism My comment :

 

Fermi's question: "Where is everyone?"

Answer: "At the cemetery"

 

But it is the Earth that has a chance to survive.

And it is our generation that decides whether or not to be.

Otherwise, humanity has to live 0% of the time, ≈ 500 years.

 

"Destruction by brutal intergalactic colonizers."

- There is no such threat:

Why destroy us?

“There is only one unique“ resource ”on Earth - crazy people.

The cruel aliens for whom the destruction, "death drive" is also an end in itself - they died. (See: The Law of Death.)

 

"Aliens in several dimensions or exotic forms of matter"

1. Scientists are quite capable of imagining any exotic form.

2. Anthropocentrism, Anthropomorphism:

Maybe, of course, anything, but our chemistry, biology, etc. most likely in H Asha universe (our physics).

 

Traces of single dead aliens will not be noticed even after 500 years, or more likely never, - Einstein is right - no “moleholes” will help.

Footprints:

1. Too far ( > > 1 billion DM. Years)

- In the Drake Equation, the coefficients are not 10, but 1000.

2. Transient , - in the sense - the old flew by for a long time, but we will not survive to the new ones.

And in general, we must not be distracted by fun, but be engaged in our own survival.

 

The meaning of feminism (as well as democracy) - in the sense of the Universe - the survival of mankind.

Feminine instincts are better than masculine ones .

Therefore, it is necessary to dramatically increase the political role of women.

Mankind is unique in H Asha universe - because of the "Great filter" now, and the remaining empty physically.

 

 

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myth: AI is weak:

myth: The human mind is very flexible. He recognized and greater threats.
Answer:
An AI threat is a matter of statistics:
AI will need to beat not the champion, but - the layman, who is "glad to be deceived himself."
The laws of psychology are no more complicated and no less reliable than physical ones, and also lend themselves to algorithmization.
100% fooling is not necessary.
Analogue: In the USSR, they coped with dissidents with the help of flexible methods.

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myth: There are "responsible":

  Myth: There are professionals who are responsible for responding to an AI threat.
Answer:
There are professionals, but they are not “responsible.” There are "responsible", but they are not professionals.
Analogue: The carelessness of the President of the United States, the Prime Minister of Britain and others - on the eve of the coronavirus epidemic.
That is, it is completely impossible to rely on the “responsible” people responsible for responding to the AI ​​threat.
Yes, there are institutions that warn of an AI threat, but "political will" is needed to respond, and it is not there.
Therefore, a social movement, the Human Survival Network, is necessary.
A network would be necessary even if politicians had adequate policies — to support them — given the seriousness of the threat.

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Selection:

 

There is an opinion that one does not have to hold on to the past, one does not have to be a conservative, that evolution has to be accepted - the withering away of people of the past, and their change with symbiotes .

After all, people are so contradictory, people have so much evil - meanness, selfishness, aggression, cruelty.

But all the more surprising are the people who, with all the bestial instincts in themselves, know how to love the living, nature, other people, are able to empathize and see the beauty of this world.

I do not want the world of these people to disappear. Moreover, it is unlikely that the symbiotes that will replace them will be better. Yes, they will be more perfect, smarter, but hardly better. They will not feel deeper, because the depth of feelings is born precisely from contradictions and voluntary choice.

 

Selfishness:

90% of people are a fertile environment for “Guided Democracy”.

I dislike the egoists who, at the moment when the fate of the world is decided, think only of the pleasure of rivalry, etc.

And if they asserted themselves only at the expense of each other.

But they also do not give a passage, prevent more responsible people who are trying to save, including their descendants, from working.

 

I'm not against dictatorships

As such. More precisely, not categorically against it.

I am only against the threat of the death of Civilization.

I am against “Managed Democracy” - only because it is the main threat to the demise of Civilization.

Yes, I feel disagreeable with heartlessness and injustice, but they could have been tolerated if the threat had arisen right now - in the age of IT .

 

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