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Danger 2024. - Mechanism:

A power group is tempted to use this advantage.
At the moment when there is a risk of losing her power, she can increase the circumstances that give her an advantage.
Namely. - before re-election of the President, it may increase external risks, the “resolution” of which depends so far only on this grouping.
Competitors will not give to hold re-elections without risk - in backstage counteraction, even if they are in the same social class.

For example, it can provoke a conflict with the United States or with NATO. -
- The risk of losing power and losing a country for a group that has power is almost equivalent.
That is, simplifying, if the risk of losing power = 50%, then it will raise the risk of physical loss of assets in the form of 140 million manpower - also up to 50%.
The loss of other people's assets is even favorable - the more billion, the better ..
Of course, the group will bluff, but at the same time actually increase the risk.

In addition, in authoritarian countries there is a natural selection for cynicism. - The power takes the group the most cynical, demagogic and selfish.

What to do?:

1. Preventive “Maidan” - so that the risk of the power group comes not from competitors-one-graders, but from the people.
And, if not "Maidan", then at least the strengthening of direct satellite counter-propaganda.
The era of the "hybrid cold war" has begun, in which the cost of counter-propaganda is more effective than the military, and, accordingly, must be greater than the latter.
2. Technical ways to reduce the risk of provocations.