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The Law of Death of Civilizations:

If a technological intelligent life has developed by chance, then it is most likely that its intelligence will be minimal, allowing it to develop, since the more intelligent life evolved by chance, the less likely it is.
If intelligent life has entered the stage of technological development, then the probability of further technological development is close to 1 (one).

At the same time:
The likelihood that natural selection is the driving mechanism for the emergence and development of intelligent life is also close to 1 (one).
The likelihood that social relations are the main factor in technological development is also close to 1 (one).
The likelihood that rivalry will exist in a society of intelligent individuals is also close to 1 (one).
The likelihood that the most successful will be the most aggressive, selfish, and possibly unprincipled intelligent individuals is also close to 1 (one).

The likelihood that technological development will be associated with the use of automata and AI is also close to 1 (one).
The likelihood that technological development will occur exponentially is also close to 1 (one).
The likelihood that the intelligence of the AI ​​will surpass the intelligence of the intelligent life that created it is also close to 1 (one).
The likelihood that the most successful intelligent individuals will use AI as a means of competition is also close to 1 (one). - Those who do not apply - will not be the most successful - transformation of natural selection.
Moreover, there is probably a law of exacerbation of social struggle with the acceleration of technological development.
Moreover, it is likely that the rivalry will be carried out through the manipulation of the bulk of intelligent beings.

The likelihood of unlimited intellectual polarization of intelligent individuals through the use of AI, more precisely - the separation of the `` class '' successful from the main mass of creatures and its narrowing is also close to 1 (one).
The likelihood that the motives of the `` winners '' deformed in the process of rivalry and the use of AI, that is, the probability that the bulk of the creatures will become alien to them is also close to 1 (one).
The likelihood that the bulk of the creatures will become a hindrance to the small group of `` winners '' is also close to 1 (one).
The likelihood that the `` winners '' will find an easy and painless way to get rid of creatures that remain intelligent and numerous enough to be a hindrance to them - also close to 1 (one).

It is probably possible to calculate the average lifetime of civilizations emitting radio waves, as well as the probability distribution curve of deviation from it.

Future of the Earth:

Unfortunately, the trend towards democratization in Europe is neither unconditional nor one-sided.

Numerous studies of the sustainability of democratic regimes in the US and EU are not really proof of their sustainability.
People simply rely on the extrapolation of observation - since liberal democracy in these countries has been progressing for 200 years, why not continue this process further?
People simply rely on their minds - on their ability to recognize any hidden threat.
However, no Brain Center does not really simulate the action of a new factor - IT, mental AI.

Russian Sunset:

Russian " Managed Democracy " bears clear signs of autocracy.
She resorts to rigging elections, violent repression, etc.
Psychic AI, however, will allow the creation of a 'Managed Democracy', which at the same time:
completely devoid of signs of autocracy,
completely resistant to degeneration into autocracy, like the German 1932,
is completely Liberal Democracy.
Liberal democracies in the West will not formally change, but will in fact become `` Managed Democracies '' too.

It will be difficult for people to recognize management, `` lobbying '', since it will not directly affect their lives, but will only affect internal production laws.
Already today, people notice their diminishing influence on politics.

How is Europe different from Rwanda?

In Europe, ruling and property groups depend on the conditions in which the producers find themselves.
Rwanda has a military-predatory economy, similar to the one that was in the same Europe in the early Middle Ages.
Paradoxically, even humanitarian aid is being built into the predatory economy.
- `` Humanitarian aid fuels wars through asset transfers ''
“In Somalia, resources from UN agencies and NGOs have become part of the clan war.
In Sudan, food, tools, and livestock were shifting from weaker to stronger groups. ''

In Europe, the end of the period of the manufacturing economy is also expected - a sharp decline in the share of the population, on which the ruling and property groups will depend.
At the same time, the development of a manufacturing commodity economy in Africa will not catch up with the decline of a manufacturing economy in Europe.
That is Africa 'baton' will not accept.
In Africa, high unemployment remains, low employment in manufacturing.
Africa will simply bypass the industrial phase due to the development of intelligent manufacturing in Europe.
True, Europe exports to Africa not only high-tech industries, but also high-tech means of democracy.
In particular, the preservation of democracy can be helped by skewing the self-defense of the population over the possibilities of robbery.

Intellectual property in Smart Manufacturing:

There are few workers in production - no one will divulge the secret.
Patents are needed only for consumer goods. -
There is no need to take patents on in-house production technologies - they are simply classified.

The most important technology for the economy is AI.
They are important, since they are most dependent on cost reduction and an increase in the quality characteristics of products.

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The production of means of production - materials, standard parts becomes cheaper.
Only products that require "design" remain expensive. - participation of people.
Already today, steel, for example, has become cheaper than bottled water. 300 years ago, iron was 300 times more expensive than water.

Reproduction cycles are formed, similar to the self-reproduction of living beings.

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AI is not tied to territory at all and can be in any convenient `` offshore ''

Manufacturing technologies can be separated from their management.
On territories inhabited by people, there can only be executive mechanisms, and they are controlled remotely.

Despite the fact that very few people are involved in management, most of the money is associated with it, since all production depends on management.
The share of the sales market associated with ordinary people will begin to decline again.
Already today, the polarization of wealth has begun to rise again.

Managed democracy will effectively be about protecting intellectual property, discouraging technology theft.
It will work best not with equal competitors, but with ordinary people.

The second direction of managed democracy will be the solution of the demographic problem - the overpopulation of the Earth.
The environment will become more important than the sales market.
No one will limit the number of children in a family - people themselves will have fewer children.
Already today, people are preparing to reduce the population.
A decrease in intelligence and an increase in suggestibility will be added to this process.

People will be on their own - outwardly.
Nobody will rape people.
There will be no escape of robots out of control - the owners of the AI ​​are not interested in this.
But AI owners will not be interested in getting people out of control either.
And people, as a resource, they will not need, unlike AI.
This AI will find 1001 ways to degrade people completely unnoticed.

In short, in 400 years 'ecology' will win. - The Earth will again be inhabited only by animals, including - a handful of idiots-descendants of people, not counting a few `` symbiotes '' - also descendants of several people who have power today, who will no longer be people with feelings inherent in humans

Time that will not be:

How can a creature be smarter than its creator?

The answer is Recursion is self-improvement.

If before all the achievements of AI were actually the achievements of its programmers, now AI is becoming the main tool for creating AI.
And such an AI, created with the use of `` mechanization '' and " automation " will be capable of much more than if it were created by hand.

But this is only the first stage. - AI will be able to commission more and more `` creative '' tasks. - AI will transform from a tool that simply increases productivity - into a creator who will need less and less guidance from a programmer.
Scientists are unanimous that AI will be able to improve itself - it can analyze the factors that favor and hinder the achievement of its goal, write its own code based on this.

Singularity:

Than less dependent on the `` inhibitory link '' - a person will become an AI, the faster he will be able to improve himself.
There is a process with positive feedback, accelerating according to the exponential.

Popular example with paper clips:

The AI ​​was given an incorrect task - to make paper clips as big and better as possible.
The AI ​​analyzed what was hindering this and found that the main hindrance is the human being.
Then the AI ​​analyzed the possibilities of eliminating this interference, and found that this is the most difficult problem - people are very difficult to outwit. Difficult, but possible.

That is, for AI it is not necessary to `` want '' kill people - the AI ​​can kill - fulfilling the task assigned to it.
However, this requires a long `` Hidden '' the preparatory stage - at which, unnoticed by humans, AI would seize control of production resources for a sudden seizure of power.
- For an independent AI, this is a very difficult task. After all, he himself is the object of analysis of other AIs, before which people set the task - to look for dangerous, incorrect tasks and dangerous `` hidden '' preparatory steps.

What will happen in reality ?:

Not that the described threat was completely impossible, just much earlier it will appear a much more real, moreover, an inevitable threat - the deliberate use of AI by people to the detriment of other people .
They will not search for dangerous tasks because they will be set - deliberately and deliberately.
On the other hand, no one will set the task of killing people. - Today, in general, large warriors are not advisable. - `` You don't need a knife for a fool '' - if the same goals can be achieved much cheaper. - Inevitably, the AI ​​will be tasked with manipulating people - foreign subjects and their own.

Golden Time:

We are living in the best time in history.
Some 300 years ago - a moment for history - people in Europe were dying of hunger during periodic crop failures, were subjected to constant robbery and violence both during continuous wars and in the intervals between them.
There was no medicine, the bath was the height of comfort.

The time that will not be:

Scientists and even futurists overwhelmingly predict the continued improvement of people's lives.
It will be so in the near future. - The power of people will continue to grow at an accelerated rate - through the use of the same AI.
However, after AI becomes much smarter than humans, humans will become an ordinary resource in the games of other people - those who wield power.
That's when we will become a real mental deterioration in the lives of most people, and simply their extinction.
First, the subjects of competitors will be suppressed, and then people will generally become an unnecessary burden, the main source of problems.
Unfortunately, the surviving single 'gods' people will no longer be.

Yes, as long as it's all more a matter of faith. - If the described plot had been proven, the same journalists would not have been so reckless.
Suppose, even, that the probability of not surpassing the `` Great Filter '' = 1%.
On the other hand, the importance of what's at stake = ∞.
1% * ∞ = ∞.

Time exists in the mind of a person. The meaning of anything is subjective.
- Without a person, the Universe will become empty.

On the meaning of life:

Don't rely on aliens either. - Apparently (through telescopes), the law of the Great Filter universal.
If the theory of the Multi-Universe is correct, then for one Our Universe that allowed the development of Civilization there are Google who do not allow it. Moreover, the number of universes is finite.
So the hope - to be or not to be the meaning of the universe lies only with you, since you are the decisive generation. - Already in the next generation, the point of no return can be passed.

The greatest responsibility in history lies with you.
But you are given both the greatest opportunities and the meaning of life - in history.

Poll: What do you prefer to do ?:

a. The life of an idiot. - Show off and entertainment;
b. A meaningful life.

What to do ?:

- `` The Ark of Freedom. ''
For the 'Period of Non-Violence' Is it necessary to create Communities that can resist manipulation? - What do you think?
Then in the future they will have a chance to preserve the `` homo-ecology ''.
Or, at the very least, create a Network so that at least someone can deal with the most important problem in history? No one has been found in 5 years.

If something is still interesting or incomprehensible - Google in hand.