Climate and AI:
We very much respect the indifference to the threats associated with anthropogenic climate change.
However, we believe there is a disproportionately large threat - the threat of psychic AI being used against humans.
We DO NOT view the threat of climate change as `` existential. ''
Arguments - simulations, etc. climate alarmists are not given us convincing enough.
Their modeling of the development of Civilization does not sufficiently take into account:
1. & quot; Natural & quot; changes in technology, in particular - cheaper solar panels, re-miniaturization of production.
2. Human adaptability.
3. Stability of the Earth's Biosphere. - 400,000 years ago, already during human existence, there were larger increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and an increase in temperature.
Yes, global warming carries significant economic and social risks, especially for the 3rd world. - This is, first of all, the risk of a decrease in the profitability of agriculture in the process of its restructuring to new agricultural crops.
However, with deep modeling carried out by ecologists, these processes can be carried out quite systematically.
At the same time, the increase in the productivity of agro-technologies is ahead of the negative effect of the climatic factor.
Even in the absence of this planning on the part of international organizations, the excesses caused by climate change will not surpass the consequences of other `` traditional '' disasters.
Yes, these negative consequences are necessary and possible to avoid.
Therefore, the activities of climate alarms are generally beneficial.
However, we believe that threats need to be addressed in proportion to their size.
Relatively speaking, global warming can kill 10 million people, and the use of AI against people can kill humanity.
Accordingly, if there are 1 million climate activists, then there should be at least 1 billion anarchist activists.
5 years ago, we did not find a single person concerned about the threat of using psychic AI.
Yes, this threat is much less predictable than the same climate one.
However, this does not mean that it is not necessary to deal with it, but that it is necessary, first of all, to deal with its refinement and modeling the development of Civilization for the next 300 years ..
- Science technologies are developing rapidly, including predictive ones.
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In giant articles on Sustainable Development: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_development
etc. articles - AI is not mentioned at all and once.
In the List of Articles on Sustainable Development (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_sustainability_articles)
- 410 articles, including none on AI or the like.
Asteroid Threat - Project:
First, this is not a threat. - This threat is orders of magnitude less than the threat of using AI.
Secondly, an asteroid that can also destroy humanity arrives once every 100 million years.
That is, the probability that it will arrive in the remaining 300 years is ≈1 / 0.3 million.
In 3, the trajectories of all large asteroids are already known. -
That is, the probability that it will arrive in the remaining 300 years = 0 for sure.
The threat remains not from asteroids, but from comets. But the probability that a comet will arrive is & gt; 1 km - in the remaining 300 years ≈1 / 1 trillion.
In 4, you can guarantee and cheaply prevent them from colliding with the Earth.
2 reasons why I consider this `` threat '' at all:
1. To remove the question from the minds of people, so that they are not distracted from the only important threat.
2. As a subject for training the Advisory Network.
Idea:
Deflection of an asteroid by thermonuclear explosions:
Option `` Sprinkle kinetic sand on the asteroid '' - not optimal compared to this option.
More details:
In the context of disarmament and periodic modernization of nuclear weapons, the "decommissioned" nuclear warheads are often negatively priced. That is, disposal costs are often higher than the price of the recyclable materials received.
Retired missiles are sometimes used, but rarely.
Warheads are used with the lowest possible mass and TNT equivalent.
Typical old submarine missiles carry 8 warheads of 150 kg each, 100 kt (Trident-I C4 - decommissioned in 2009), 50 kt (Poseidon).
It is only necessary to develop in advance a semi-serial additional accelerating stage.
Used 1. warhead instead of 8 + Boost stage + New Fuse.
Immediately after the detection of a threatening asteroid, research guidance vehicles are launched, which are located near the asteroid.
The same vehicles aim warheads.
Warheads are not decelerated when passing an asteroid.
The warheads are detonated as close as possible to the asteroid.
- The shock wave of an explosion at a distance of even 10 meters is several orders of magnitude weaker than from an explosion with penetration into an asteroid.
The risk of the asteroid splitting is negligible. However, it is being investigated by research guidance vehicles.
A close explosion absorbs ≈50% of the explosion energy.
The reactive force is created by the evaporation of the surface of the asteroid.
10-meter guidance and a millisecond detonation - just provide research guidance vehicles.
The warheads fly up with the frequency necessary to clarify the change in the asteroid's trajectory from the previous explosion.
International ban on preventing natural apocalypse:
To ban the use of nuclear weapons in space - an exception can be reached in ≈2 months. That is, developments do not need to look back at this at all.
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