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Semiautomatic AI:

I think that a full-fledged autonomous psychic AI will appear only when a full-fledged self-improvement of AI is achieved, that is, not earlier than the 2050s.
However, there will be no jump in AI efficiency, since semi-automatic AIs will not be inferior to automatic ones at that time.

Semi-automatic AI is being used today.
In them, the strengths of humans and AI complement each other.
These are not the `` symbiotes '' that will destroy humanity in 200 years.
- Today - the traditional interface is used - by ordinary people, although they are experts in their sabotage business.
AI today perform only auxiliary functions, almost without affecting complex human psychology.
Nevertheless, AI assistance already today increases the effectiveness of propagandists many times over, primarily by increasing the efficiency of group work, albeit hierarchically organized rather than P2P.
AI, for example, helps a lot to coordinate the work of different trolls on the same social site, significantly increase the productivity of `` creative '' labor of fake maisters.

Semiautomatic-era:

An era when people are not needed will be preceded by an era when it is economically optimal to share AI - with a large number of workers - when the capabilities of AI and humans will complement each other.
The semiautomatic era must be exploited to make this collaborative AI with all humans `` exclusive '' to keep humans from being excluded from development and management.

The superiority of AI over humans - in psychology:

AI is already being used to help educators recognize children's emotions.
- AI trained on Big Data and on a particular child is already able to recognize emotions by small facial expressions better than inexperienced educators.

The psychology of the average person is relatively primitive. -
- A skilled psycho-manipulator is capable of quite successfully controlling most of the people.
AI, as an auxiliary weapon, will allow the average manipulator to not only reach the level of an outstanding manipulator, but also significantly surpass it.
AI is able to analyze human behavior - around the clock.
AI is able to analyze behavior - all people at the same time, and cheaply.
AI is able not only to give personal recommendations for manipulation - by each person, but also to mount manipulations from blanks prepared for different types of people and different situations.
AI can increase the productivity of manipulators - by orders of magnitude, while improving its quality.

Carelessness of socially concerned about the use of AI:

The role of sowing discord between people was previously insignificant due to the fact that manipulators were nothing different from manipulated ones.
Examples of successful manipulations:
1876 ​​- The Americans defeated the Indians by hiring some Indians against others.
1916 - Germans tried to promote Lenin to Russia.
2016 - Russians moved Trump to the USA.

Cheaper AI completely changes political strategy and history.
- From the middle of the 21st century, the main way to achieve political goals will be the manipulation of the human resources of competitors using mental AI.

Advisory Network - why:

The benefits of warning us 99.9% of people must far exceed the harm from prompting manipulators.
To do this, you must first launch the Advisory Network before delving into the science of mechanizing psychic manipulation, since 0.1% of manipulators are well organized, unlike the rest of the `` crowd ''

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The AI ​​will not be the president, but the president's advisor.

AI will prepare texts, but professional demagogues will speak.

Simplification:

Improving technology is not limited to improving propaganda.
It is not limited to the improvement of political technologies.
In fact, this is political stabilization - with the help of technology.

A human being, in principle, is not capable of the same flexibility as AI.
Putin, for example, today behaves inadequately, not optimally - for his own survival.
`` He can no longer change, irreversible changes in his consciousness have occurred - a messianic complex has appeared, a perception of reality in black and white, a feeling of himself as a person who does not belong to Russia. ''
Putin is a strong terrorist saboteur and provocateur, but a weak system creator.

That is, a human leader is basically unable to provide stability.
He comes by accident - thanks to his qualities, for which there is a demand at the moment, but 20 years pass - the demand changes, but the human leader does not.
An authoritarian Russia, while making a major contribution to the development of propaganda technologies, itself probably will not live to see the triumph of these technologies. -
The worsening of the financial situation will not be able to talk and will not have time.
The Consensus of Fear elites are likely to overthrow Putin, who is incapable of adapting, to feed the crowd.

Improving propaganda will not be the main factor for stability.
IT will help elites live without crises, without true revolutions.
IT will help elites optimize their policies.
Propaganda will continue to play a supporting role.
If a softened crisis is unavoidable, propaganda will help ease it even further.

The problem is different - that depravity - selfishness, greed and lust for power of AI rulers will not diminish, AI will only help rulers to satisfy their vices - optimally - without mistakes.
The problem is that
- Opportunities for rulers will grow endlessly;
- The freedom of rulers will grow. That is, AI will help rulers to ensure stability with less and less concessions.
- People will start to interfere with the rulers;

And initially

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Conversion:

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I really often have a simplified description - a description of the future as an improvement in propaganda technologies.
In reality, of course, everything is more complicated - the laws of history will not change, but will become more complicated. -