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Russo-American War 2023:

The threat to the Russian authorities does not come from NATO, but, as always, from the people of Russia themselves.
As always, after the defeat in the war with Ukraine, in 2023 a power crisis will begin in Russia itself.
Propaganda successfully creates an image of unity in the Russian Federation, however, this is no longer the case.
The only way for the rulers of Russia to maintain power will be to force the Russians to fight NATO, to provoke NATO "aggression", that is, to continue to "raise the stakes."

(After the defeat in the Crimean War of 1854-55, significant political reforms began in Russia;
After the defeat in the Russo-Japanese War in 1904, the 1st Russian Revolution began).

The use of provocation in propaganda is a traditional and proven method of the Russian special services. -
The Soviet -Finnish war began with the shelling of the Soviet border garrison by the Finns;
The Russian-Chechen and Russian-Georgian wars began with provocations.
Now the Russian Federation is shelling itself at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and at the same time repeats - "we can't shell ourselves"

Probable scenario of provocation 2023:
Novorossiysk is under rocket attack.
Missile fragments turn out to be NATO .
The Russian government finds out that these missiles were not supplied to Ukraine from the West, that is, they were fired directly from a NATO ship.

If the Russo-American War starts, it will probably still be non-nuclear .
- To distract the people of Russia - the rulers of the Russian Federation, the smallest war is enough, but - with a formidable adversary - NATO.

 

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Russian-Kazakh war:

When the question of survival arises, they kill their own .

, the opinion spread that Akella was wrong. -
That Putin miscalculated the possibility of conquering Ukraine.
Because of this, the entire elite of the Russian Federation suffers huge losses. -
In particular, Europe withstood the cut off from gas.
But the RF disconnection from gas revenues will not survive.

But Putin, instead of a palace war, will offer to direct the discontent of the elite and the people in a new direction - to Kazakhstan.
Yes, if you beat your own, then there will be no allies in the future.
But now there is simply no future for Putin.
Empires have always attacked other dictatorships.
In Afghanistan , for example, in 1979 there was also a dictatorship, as in the USSR .

Yes, Putin's ratings began to fall.
But propaganda in Russia is still strong.
This factor can be used to restore the rating.

"Victory" in Ukraine:

Putin, using all his agents in the West, will try to negotiate beautiful guarantees for the Crimea and Donbass in exchange for the complete withdrawal of troops from Ukraine.
In Ukraine, the victory of Russia will be declared.
Victory will be announced - security guarantees for Russian speakers .
True, these "guarantees" will not differ in any way from what the Russian speakers had before 2014.

"Help" to Kazakhstan:

And right there - to restore his rating - Putin organizes "Help" to Kazakhstan.
1. Putin organizes protests with the help of FSB agents - in Kazakhstan.
The agents will be promised a lot of money and the release - immediately after the "victory" - of those who will be imprisoned.
2. Present a secret ultimatum to the rulers of Kazakhstan. -
"We will not touch your power, Northern Kazakhstan remains in Kazakhstan. But you are creating autonomy in Northern Kazakhstan."
3. Will announce in the Russian Federation about assistance to Russian speakers now - in Kazakhstan.

Probably, the FSB will find a Kazakh traitor like Kadyrov - Karmal , at whose request military assistance will be provided "in order to avoid the seizure of power by terrorists."
Perhaps, nevertheless, the Kazakhs will be announced that the Russian Federation is helping the "healthy wing" in the leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which wanted to take a course on anti-corruption reforms during the January 2022 uprising, and the course itself on reforms has been announced.
It will also confuse naive Europeans.
True, in Russia it is exactly the same - the corruption system. But for propaganda it doesn't matter.
The Russians will also be informed about the protection of Russian-speakers in Kazakhstan from the threat posed by the unrest.

Unlike Ukraine, it is possible that Russian special forces will land immediately in Astana and capture the Presidential Palace, just as the USSR special forces captured the Presidential Palace in Afghanistan.
There are fewer Kazakhs in Kazakhstan than there was the population of Afghanistan at the time of the Soviet invasion.
The combat effectiveness of the army of Kazakhstan is not higher than the combat effectiveness of the Mujahideen.

Western countries will not defend a dictatorship from another dictatorship, especially a non-European one , the way they defend democratic Ukraine.
The Russians will fight with the "chocks" with more enthusiasm than with the "Khokhls".
- Among the soldiers of the Russian Federation, the understanding has already spread that they are not fighting with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The first threat to Putin is not the people, but the elite that Putin has impoverished.
Putin needs to stop the impoverishment of the elite, and for this he needs to stop the war in Ukraine.
But if Putin simply stops the war in Ukraine, then his rating will drop.
And if Putin's rating falls, Putin's elite will eliminate it.
The only way out for Putin is to keep the state of war, but in such a way that the elite of the Russian Federation does not become poorer.

2 options remain:
1. Protect Armenia - attack the "Azeris".
2. Protect Russians in Kazakhstan.

Advantages of Azerbaijan:

- Oil deliveries through the Caucasus to the West will be stopped.
- The split within NATO. - Everyone, except the Turks, will be for the Armenians.

Advantages of Kazakhstan:

- Weaker resistance - Türkiye will not help. - The weapons of the Russian Federation were significantly spent in Ukraine. Türkiye is now no weaker than Russia, except for nuclear weapons.
- Cheaper war for the elite.
- You can find a common language with China.
- An internal split can be caused. - Kazakhs in Northern Kazakhstan are only half, and Azerbaijan is mono-ethnic .

Afghan Syndrome:

The Brezhnev group, too, decided to replace the completely pro-Soviet, but independent ruler of Afghanistan, Amin, with a completely puppet of Karmal .
And I also miscalculated.
The defeat of the USSR in the Soviet-Afghan war was one of the reasons for the death of the USSR. -
The people and the elites did not understand and did not accept defeat.
The KGB took advantage of the fall in the authority of the CPSU to overthrow it and seize power.

2 mistakes of Putin in Ukraine:

1. Underestimated the "partisans".
The officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to ask direct questions to the traitor commanders, and the latter had to be allowed to kill the Russians.
Among middle-level officers, the proportion of traitors was an order of magnitude smaller than among superiors.

2. Not shared with everyone.
The FSB deceived Putin that they would agree with the SBU, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Administration of the President of Ukraine.
- Far not with all agreed.
As always, they embellished the report to Putin.
And one of the traitors of Ukraine betrayed Putin on the go and again went back when the Russian troops did not take Kyiv in 3 days.

 

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