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Mechanism of the "End of History":

About intelligent polarization:

Intellectual heterogeneity has always existed.
But it was a "natural" heterogeneity. And most importantly - steady.
Resilience was maintained by biological and then cultural mechanisms. -
If a more "reasonable" genus appeared, then it simply killed neighboring clans, committed genocide.
And again the equilibrium was restored.
Cultural factors of superiority began to prevail over purely biological, genetic ones.

Another new significant factor was the state.
Now it was not small genus that competed with each other, but gigantic associations - states.
The biological factor became 3-degree.
On the 1st side, within the states, the genes are mixed.
On the 2nd side, the basis of the state became laws. They actually became the main subject of competition.
In particular, the laws drastically reduced inter-genetic natural "selection". They replaced it - with wars - between states.

In the era of the "Great geographical discoveries", the neighbors of the most advanced - European state culture became the whole world.
It was the most significant deviation from the equilibrium – so far.
Equilibrium recovery took more than 200 years. Papuans today are very different from those who were only 200 years ago. "Cultures of globalization" and "Legal globalization" emerged.
In particular, "geographical deviation" has become a major factor in the emergence of racism.
The Earth was lucky - due to a combination of circumstances and technological competition between states, humanity jumped out of the Malthusian vicious circle.

However, the development of technology has given rise today also to a new - already deadly source of instability - Artificial Intelligence.
On the 1st side, people lose the main reason of destructive "competition" - limite of resources.
Competition becomes non-destructive. – Today, not only genes and cultures, but also states have begun to coexist peacefully.

On the 2nd side, with the new equilibrium of "Legal globalization" - interstate competition is replaced - by social competition.
Now it is not so much the states that compete with each other, but the political ruling groups.
Moreover, in authoritarian states, natural political selection brings to the top the most cynical, insidious and vile individuals who use "uncivilized", including terrorist means of competition.
Spirituality has so far grown in equilibrium in proportion to the growth of reason. The main threat is a combination of animal instincts "Putins" with super-AI.

The use of Artificial Intelligence will drastically disrupt the natural intellectual equilibrium that has existed throughout the history of mankind.
The new stable state will be either a degenerate state, the cessation of the existence of natural cultures and civilization, which, however, in fact will not differ from the physical death of mankind, or the absence of mankind.

Deadly manipulation balance:

Despite the flaws of the hierarchical structure, it can "tunnel" into a new stable state, "2nd wind", in which quasi-authoritarianism will once again take precedence over the "democratic" structure - through the use of AI - instead of an inefficient hierarchical structure.
The problem is that in the new condition, along with the human hierarchy, people themselves will become unnecessary.
People will become only a problem for the heirs of authoritarian rulers and will have to degrade and die out.

Process:

Democracy will decline for the best of reasons - for the safety of Americans themselves and to protect them from foreign influence.
Simply isolating Americans from foreign influence will not work:
1. "Terminators" will use the rules of freedom of speech - even curtailed ones.
2. AI will be able to find workarounds.

Those very democratic governments will be forced to imitate patronal autocracies.
And since AI will grow exponentially, the autonomy and actual freedom of people will decrease exponentially.

"Algorithms will be better than you yourself at understanding what's going on inside you, and the power will pass to them." ( Harari Yu. N. 21 lessons for the 21st century)
More precisely, absolute power will pass to the owners of these "algorithms".
This is already an axiom.

The problem is that such a position would be unsustainable. -
- The more people turn into “pets”, the more their managers will be seduced.
- It will be manipulated not so much by people as rulers - by each other , including by manipulating their "clients".
The most "honest" rulers will be the losers of the most unprincipled.

Apparently , there is only one way to avoid the described "End of History" - anticipatory democratization. - The way in which the rulers themselves disappear.

§ EEG- personal data:

There has been a lot of talk lately about personal data.
However, no one mentions the need to protect EEG (Electroencephalogram) data, despite the fact that the leakage of EEG data will be incomparably more dangerous than the leakage of ordinary personal data
In Russia, propaganda is preparing the perception of " digitalization " by the population - as a benefit for them, and not as a great danger.
Traditionally, intelligence agencies in Russia have had extrajudicial access to the personal information of any person.
" Digitalization " will make available to them - all personal information, including medical.

On the 2nd side, the secret services within the healthcare system will - imperceptibly contribute to:
1. Improving the EEG, of course - "for medical purposes."
2. Expanding the use of EEG, turning it into a standard procedure, like a blood test.

On the 3rd side, inside the special services themselves, the science of personality diagnostics by EEG will be secretly developed - using the "Big Data" of the EEG.
On the 4th side, methods of personal influence will be developed, based on a deep diagnosis of personality.

§ Personal manipulation

All of the above will greatly increase the effectiveness of manipulation - personally by each person - instead of mass propaganda, as is done today.
main factor in the personalization of manipulation is its rapid reduction in cost through the use of AI.
Initially, personal manipulation will be applied only to significant people.
But as costs drop and automation increases, personalization of manipulation will spread to the entire population.

A person gives out a lot of psychological information about his personality through his activities on the Internet.
Today this information is very primitively used by advertising.
Adding EEG data to behavioral data will increase information about a person - not by a factor of 2, but by many times.

§ On social polarization, once again:

When they hear about social polarization, they usually immediately think of a "social" or "socialist" state, of communism.
We are talking about an intellectual polarization based on mechanization, which will lead to the manipulation of a few " symbiotes " - all other people.
Undoubtedly, intellectual polarization is connected with social polarization, will become "symbiotes" - the people - maniacs of power .

Social polarization is usually understood primarily as economic polarization.
However, it is not directly economic polarization that matters, but political and power polarization.
Paradoxically, in the "socialist" states, in which economic polarization was minimal, the power grouping of people is the strongest.
Of course, economic polarization breeds political polarization.
The meaning of democracy lies precisely in the separation of political power from economic power.
But there are no pure democracies, but only different degrees of oligarchy.

The only way to avoid the threat to humanity associated with intellectual polarization, we see in the creation of super-democratic , "flat", self-governing communities

 

The problem is that a particularly strong intellect will serve especially strong animal instincts.
If a particularly strong intellect developed in a "superman", then it would not be so dangerous - the instincts and intellect in the person himself are harmonized.
The problem is that in " symbiotes " the soulless intellect does not become one with the human psyche.
And it is individuals with particularly strong animal instincts that become " symbiotes ".

§ Wars between " symbiotes ":

At the 1st stage, a more traditional option is possible - wars between " symbiotes ".
Traditionally, the remaining ordinary people will suffer the most from these wars.
However, due to the fact that AI will become the main weapon, wars between " symbiotes " will become completely unconventional. -
Wars will become much less spectacular, but at the same time more effective.
The main weapons will not be their own soldiers, but the subjects of the enemy and their neighbors.
This will further strengthen the trend towards independence of " symbiotes " from people.

§ General Africanization :

The general instability characteristic of the European Middle Ages will return.
Paradoxically, if possible with the help of AI to eliminate all diseases, hunger and conflict - AI will be used to increase disease, hunger and conflict.
Traditional weapons of mass destruction will not be used, at least at the 1st stage, but the use of non-traditional diseases is possible.
Mental problems in people will increase everywhere.

 

The need for people will disappear in 100 years.
But for another 200 years, " symbiotes " will tolerate their antics - attempts to undermine their power, also using technology.
And, one not very fine day, some of the " symbiotes " will get bored with people.

Law of growth of extremism:

At the 1st stage - the AI ​​​​semi-automatic will be weak. He will not be able to offer manipulations to the rulers that could greatly change civilization.
People's lives will gradually improve, democracy and freedoms will continue to grow.
There will be no "singularity".
However, quietly, little by little, AI will grow rapidly, and will already be capable of significant manipulation of people. He will be able to make people really crazy.
The rulers, at the prompt of the AI, will fight the outward manifestations of insanity-extremism, but paying attention to the true cause of extremism will be considered an erroneous conspiracy theory.

Conspiracy Theory of Silence:

The theory about the threat of using AI for manipulation is very simple.
However, I didn't find any discussion of it in the media when I searched a few years ago.
This suggests the use of one of the standard methods of manipulation - the silence on unwanted topics.
Moreover, this silence exists not only in authoritarian regimes, but also in democratic states.
This, of course, is not yet a conspiracy, but simply the similarity of interests due to the similarity of political systems in all states.

§ Future Conspiracy Theory:

There are simply not enough resources for conspiracies today, primarily intellectual ones.
But in the future, extremism may grow not only through the growth of psychological manipulation, but also physically - directly.
For example, today the special services poison only a few people, because it is expensive and risky.
In the future, the cost and risk of physical transactions will drop dramatically. - Spec. technology will break away from civilians .

 

§ How did states work before?:

The leader needed warriors to defeat the rival ruler.
At the same time, in order for the warriors to stay with the leader, he had to provide the warriors with more income than the other ruler.
The process was "balanced". - If the ruler took too much for himself and left little for the soldiers, then the soldiers left, or the ruler was executed.
The rulers conspired among themselves, but also within the framework of the "equilibrium" process.

In the era of democracy and the mass army, all citizens became warriors.
Citizens became literate:
1. There was a demand for journalistic investigations of the intrigues of the rulers.
2. Citizens began to competently understand the criticism and constructive proposals of the leaders-competitors.

§ The AI, however, will make the process " non-equilibrium ":

Information systems will again make citizens illiterate in the sense of being unintelligent relative to rulers. And more illiterate than even in the Middle Ages,
The rulers will be able to take all the income for themselves, prevent competition, and negotiate among themselves. And at the same time, citizens will be sure that it cannot be otherwise.
Rulers will be able to deal with each other and with competitors - without the use of citizens:
1. AI weapons will become professional again - more than in the Middle Ages,
2. AI will allow you to "deal" - non-violently, that is, again without the use of citizen-warriors:

"AI will do" here should be understood not in the sense of the AI subject, but in the same way as "The Colt will make the terrorist stronger."

§ Monopoly political collusion and the Modem Handshake:

In the US and Europe, there are antimonopoly institutions - in the economy.
However, there are none in politics.
Antimonopoly institutions in the economy are beneficial to the authorities - more taxes are collected.

Nevertheless, antimonopoly mechanisms in politics in the West work, but - spontaneously and historically .
- Many social groups are interested in democratic freedoms, including the same "capitalists".
The problem is that there is an opportunity for them to get even more benefits if they do not compete with each other, but enter into a political collusion.
Moreover, it is not required to come to an agreement immediately totally - you can agree only on separate points, and even without a public agreement - only by actions that expect the same actions of "competitors".
However, this is very difficult to do.
The problem is that the "handshake of modems" - "communication" of AI systems of competing groups will be able to bypass all difficulties, including those associated with human weaknesses - dignity, conscience, etc.

The second difficulty with political collusion is that a historically free press can investigate political collusion.
The problem is that AI is able to outmaneuver human investigators, while maintaining freedom of speech and freedom to obtain government information.
Moreover, a positive feedback is formed - centralized money will receive a more powerful AI, exponentially gaining power and getting cheaper,

Freedom of speech will be fully preserved.
And even demagoguery is very little, since not only journalists, but also scientists will be fooled.
Analogue: Covid -2019. - Most virologists supported Peter Dashak when he criticized the "conspiracy theory" about the artificial origin of the virus.
Political economy is not an exact science because it uses psychological concepts.
And other social sciences - even more so.
Therefore, the possibilities for manipulating the opinion of scientists are even greater here.
However, the decisive factor is the freedom of information.
For example, if scientists had all the "commercial" information, then Dashak would not be able to deceive them.

Why flat communities are needed:

It doesn’t matter what the scenario of the “End of History” will be, but it is important that with the socio-intellectual polarization, any scenario leads to the “End of History”,
That is, we must not try to predict and avoid specific scenarios, but we must avoid intellectual polarization.
And for this, you need to create Autonomous flat communities and "Arks".

§ "Pirates" will save the world:

Perhaps "piracy" is the most important phenomenon in History, the only one that can save Mankind from destruction. -
If there is transparency of all socially significant information, then even with a less powerful AI, it will be possible to fight social manipulation.

100% transparency of publicly relevant information can be a factor that outweighs the opposition of DAI against centralized AI , despite the fact that more money will be invested in centralized AI .
The biggest obstacle to the openness of publicly significant information, and, accordingly, the biggest threat to the survival of mankind is copyright.

§ Once again about Micro-rockets ( Micro cruise-missiles ):

Now is a brief moment in history when mass non-professional weapons, and non-lethal ones, are stronger than any other.
This moment of history is short, since in the 2050s AI will be able to surpass the "players " - people.

 

 

"Matrix":

These are virtual worlds, " Meta-universes ", optimized for the psychological and political manipulation of people.
No one will drive people into the "Matrix" by force, although they will create such conditions that it will be difficult to refuse.
- They will lure you into the corresponding virtual worlds - also with the help of manipulations - as they lure you into commercial games and casinos today.

Computing power, more precisely, Virtual worlds, will continue to get cheaper.
It will be more cost-effective to lure people into them and there already increase their level of satisfaction and happiness, and at the same time fool them.
- It will be more beneficial than increasing the level of satisfaction of people in - the physical world.

 

Provocation is a method of manipulation:

Provocation is one of the most effective methods of political manipulation.
After the FSB blew up residential buildings in Moscow and other cities in 1999, Russian hatred of Chechens increased dramatically.
The terrorist attack in Beslan was also organized by the FSB. But he organized not directly, but through his agents among the Chechen partisans. Moreover, 90% of the children were killed not by Chechens, but by special troops who killed witnesses during the "liquidation of terrorists."

On January 5, 2022, the security of the International Airport was removed in Almaty - in order for foreign journalists to record acts of vandalism.
On 01/05/2022, the police were removed from the central districts of the city adjacent to the city administration building in Almaty, and provocateurs were also used - in order to:
1. Redirect the aggression of residents from the administration to rich shops located in the city center.
2. Set up passive residents and soldiers against active residents.
3. Justify the order of the "president" - "shoot to kill without warning" and "kill them."

§ Fact creation:

Purely deceiving people, even Russians, with the help of controlled media is ineffective. - Russians treat controlled media with distrust.
A much more effective method of manipulation is indirect deception - by creating actual facts.
Moreover, it is enough to create separate facts that can be referred to. -
People don't trust statistics either.

§ Example: Demonstration of the hysteria of Ukrainians and Europeans:

The Kremlin has concentrated troops on the Ukrainian border.
There was a real hysteria in the Western media about the threat of a Russian invasion.
Kremlin propagandists need only "correctly" present the facts of hysteria.

 

Comments - Mine:

To EvgenStorm and Isaac Clarke . Censorship test:
Rolled his lip for 3 billion years. – 3 hundred years of a unique, perhaps the only one with such an advanced Civilization left to live.
All - naturally, or rather artificially die because of terrorists like Putin. "Great Filter"
By the way, Berezin is the best scientific pop of Runet.
https://naked-science.ru/article/astronomy/begletsy-i-brodyagi