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Musk is right. Crimea:

Elon Musk offered Ukrainians to give Crimea to Russia.
After that, Musk was scolded not only in Ukraine, but also in Western social networks.

Option 1: Attack on the Crimea "on the move":

Cons of this option:
"–" The risk of the war escalating, turning it into a world war, into a nuclear one, will only grow.
"-" The return of the Crimea will now be violent - in relation to the local population.
"–" It will cost Ukrainians 200,000 lives.

For 8 years , Crimeans have been subjected to the most effective brainwashing in history.
Today, unlike in 2014, Ukrainians are angry at Russians and collaborators .
Now a third of the Crimeans will be punished for "betrayal". And a third are deported to Russia.
Podolyak voices the opinion of the majority of Ukrainians on this issue.
(www.unian.net/war/sovetnik-glavy-op-mihail-podolyak-rossiya-budet-opushchena-izgnana-i-pod-reparaciyami-11998881.html)
The Russians will indeed defend Crimea as their own land.
The use of a nuclear charge on Perekop will be the desire of the majority of Russians.

If in 2014, the Crimeans would prefer to stay in Ukraine - if they knew how it would all end. Harassment and discrimination incl . linguistic then were insignificant.
Now the majority of Crimeans would really prefer not to live in Ukraine.

Support extrapolation error:

Musk did not voice a personal opinion. He voiced the mood of the Western elites.
Today, Europeans are outraged by the atrocities of the occupiers.
But when the Ukrainians invade Crimea, then in the eyes of half of the Europeans, the occupiers may already be Ukrainians.
And Western support, including financial support, is crucial in this war.

Biden is wrong - You can win a nuclear war.

Victory (Putin) will be mass murder, genocide - of the Russian and American peoples.
The Russian people are an objective enemy of the Putinists more than the American people.

Option 2: Temporary transfer of strategic efforts - to :

- To change the power and political system in Russia,
- On satellite counter-propaganda,
- On the exclusion of the Russian Federation from the UN and all international organizations,
- To create an example of a prosperous and free life for Ukrainians.
- On the de- nuclearization of the Russian Federation .
- On the creation of weapons, preferably non-lethal, which will dramatically change the ratio of losses of Ukrainians and Russians during the "liberation" of Crimea.

It is not true that time works for the Russian Federation. Time works against it. -
Europe's gas blackmail has failed.
But in reality, and not "technically" the Russian Federation will go bankrupt only in a year.

Gas error:

The Ukrainians made a mistake in rushing Europe to impose sanctions on the purchase of natural gas from the Russian Federation.
Gas cannot be replaced quickly. The solvency of Europe is high. - The Russian Federation received the same money, but for 2 times less volume of gas sold.
It was more expedient to help the Europeans calculate a plan to accelerate the "green transition".

Do not freeze the conflict, but slow down:

The goal of minimizing the losses of Ukrainians in the war and preventing a nuclear war should be equal to the goal of restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
The conquest of Crimea at the cost of the death of a billion people is unacceptable.
The best way to reduce the losses of Ukrainians is technological. - In the conditions of technological isolation and the supply of more and more modern weapons to Ukraine, the qualitative military superiority of Ukrainians over Russians will begin to grow.
But this also takes time.

RF denuclearization : _

It's real, but it takes time too.
Today, it is really easy to knock out the strategic nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation with the hands of Ukrainians.
Even SSBNs (Submarines).

You need to cook the toad - slowly. Then:
1. She won't buck;
2. The effect will be - more reliable - the Russian Federation will explode - from the inside, without blowing up the whole world.
This is the only way Ukrainians will not leave a threat to their children.

Jews can also be understood -

Denying official military assistance to Ukraine, they do not want to cause a 2nd holocaust, for which one single "Satan" is now sufficient.
However, today the intangible is more valuable than the material. -
Jews can help Ukrainians more - informationally - by helping to organize their own military scientific developments, in particular, by helping to create Flat Science.

Musk is right:

Musk is right - the best option is, if not the abandonment of Crimea, then the suspension of its "liberation".
It is believed that concessions to the Putinists only whet their appetite.
Yes, it has been so - until now.
Now the Putinites will learn their lesson, even if Ukraine does not regain Crimea.
And it is not necessary that Crimea again belong to Ukraine.
It is enough, optimally, that Crimea does not press the Russian Federation, it becomes independent.
- This goal must be fixed in international obligations - before the invasion of Crimea.

Ungrateful Ukrainians:

Former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany insulted Musk for Musk's responsible attitude to the nuclear threat.
If Ukrainians treat their allies this way, then Putin will defeat them both externally and internally.
Probably, the FSB is trying to quarrel the Ukrainians with Musk . Divide and rule.

Mask competition:

However, the truth is that you should not rely on one supplier. -
" Starlink is the only communications system still up and running at the front - the rest are dead."
But at the same time, it is better not only to look for an alternative supplier, but also to create your own Starlink , as well as their radar SAR satellites like those of the ICEYE Company.
Yes, you need to create a coalition, but not so much to pay for Starlink , but to develop your own starlink .
Ukraine must have a strong, but also independent military-industrial complex.
In the USSR, NPO Yuzhnoye was the leading developer of strategic missiles.
Democratic Ukraine must become not only an agrarian, but also a space power again.

 

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Free Crimea:

Whose Crimea? - Crimeans .
The optimal formula - with minimal sacrifice is:
Crimea de jure belongs to Ukraine, but de facto it should be independent.
That is, not to obey orders from Kyiv, but to live according to their own laws.
Yes, there will be restrictions on self-government, but not much greater than restrictions on the sovereignty of Ukraine itself in the European Union.
The main limitation of the Crimean sovereignty concerns its foreign policy – the impossibility of transferring to a state other than Ukraine.

Are Ukrainians fighting for freedom (for themselves) or for lack of freedom (for others)?
Ukrainians want to become civilized?
But civilization is not subjugation, not coercion, but seduction. In this case, the seduction of the Crimeans is the European quality of life.
But for this, Ukrainians must first be able to build their own society - without corruption, without unemployment, a society in which "servants of the people" are professionals who serve not the oligarchs, but only the people - without intermediaries.

Should Crimea be "liberated"?

Yes, there was an illegal annexation.
Yes, the Crimeans were deceived by Putinists' propagandists .
But deceived people don't deserve to die for being deceived?
Is the ban on the exit of Ukrainians from their place of residence a sabotage and sabotage of the Government of Ukraine, which belongs to the "Russian World"?
This is forcing Ukrainians to die for the Government and turning them into the same "cannon fodder" as in the Russian Federation.
Should Ukrainians be forced to die and kill Crimeans ?
1. Volunteers must fight. The state should not force, but help as much as possible. However, since 2014 there has been little assistance to volunteers from the state - more sabotage.
2. The strategy for the return of Crimea should be predominantly not military, but economic and counter-propaganda .
- Crimeans should see that Ukrainians live better than they do.
Crimeans should hear the revelations of the Kremlin's demagoguery. However, Ukraine loses to the Russian Federation in the main thing - in counter-propaganda. Even though the truth is on their side. And this is the "merit" of the saboteurs from the Government of Ukraine.

Elon Musk's naivete:

, Elon Musk tweeted a "Peace Plan" to help end the war in Ukraine.
(https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000)
According to Musk, Russia's military aggression will be stopped by:
- Refusal of the Crimea in favor of Russia;
- Conducting repeated "elections" in the occupied territories of Ukraine under the supervision of the UN;
Musk added that Russia would withdraw from the occupied territories "if the will of the people is there."
He wrote that Russia would announce a general mobilization if Crimea "becomes in danger," leading to "destructive deaths" on both sides.

Ukrainians are wrong when they scold Musk. - Musk proposed the Peace Plan because he is a very good, "divine" person.
Indeed, the Great Ukrainian ambitions of Ukrainians are not worth the death of 1 billion people in a possible nuclear war. -
– Putin is not bluffing that he can defend Crimea with all nuclear forces. The cowardly mouse was cornered.
True, Putin will not defend Crimea, but himself. At the cost of the death of his real enemy - the Russian people. Life in a bunker, of course, is not absolutely comfortable, but better than martyrdom.

Musk is wrong about the possibility of "elections" in the occupied territories of Ukraine under the supervision of the UN.
the Russian Federation will agree to a second referendum.
Only for an objective referendum is necessary first - the de-occupation of the Crimea .
see: Relativity of Capacity.docx
But the Russian Federation will no longer agree to this.

"Peace plan" The mask is not-real :

- The war can't be stopped so easily:
1. Putin started the war because for maintaining his power, he is forced to raise the stakes. The last bet is a nuclear apocalypse.
2. Putin's propaganda and manipulations are quite effective - mobilized Ukrainian prisoners of war successfully kill their former fellow soldiers. - From the 1st side.
3. Putin has so embittered the Ukrainians that they will not stop now until they kill 1 million military terrorists in the cleansing of the Crimea. - From the 2nd side.

A realistic Plan should be - "positive". -
Ukrainians may well agree with the prevalence of the goal of subordinating Crimea to Kyiv - the goals:
- Protect Crimeans from dictatorship, and
- Give the Crimeans prosperity in the EU.

 

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Russian Crimea (Union Crimea):

Putin's win-win war:

If Putin loses the war and the Ukrainians liberate Crimea, then Putin will still win - politically.
The purpose and reason for the Putinists' attack on Ukraine was to strengthen Putin's power.
1. In 2014, Putin's rating soared after KrymNasha
2. It was impossible to allow an example for the Russians of a prosperous=democratic life of the people closest to the Russians.

If Putin loses the war, then:
1. Ukraine will be restored for a long time and will not be an example;
2. Ukrainians will no longer be close to the Russian people - in the perception of Russians.
- Let Bandera zazhrutsya more than the Swiss - they will become as distant as the Swiss enemies.

Sado Escalation:

for the Putinites to kill not a million Americans, but a million Russians.
A blow to a Western country will not bring victory and Putin's rating will not increase,
But when hitting Russia, the Russians will approve martial law and rally around the leader of the nation. Besides, "They don't change horses in midstream," the Russians say.
Putin does not need a big nuclear war, but it is beneficial for him to provoke a small strike against Russia.
Putin came to power by provoking a strike on Beslan with the help of FSB agents and simulating Chechen attacks in Ryazan and Moscow.

Unstable World:

democratization of Russia on the model of Germany after 1945 - Wolfgang Merkel is right.
Russia will become a militaristic, Nazi nuclear empire.
The world will become unstable:

Putintsev "driven into a corner." In the event of a small nuclear war, their lives will become worse, but they will survive.
But without a nuclear strike on Russia, the risk of repeating the fate of Gaddafi for them will only grow.
And no "Petrov" will help. Surprisingly - there have been no nuclear incidents at all so far - Russian technology is becoming less reliable.
For example, a "random" attack by a single missile with a non-activated nuclear warhead from Kozelsk or from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky is possible - at a short distance - to trigger a counterattack - according to an automatic protocol.

Nuclear "smoldering":

If under the USSR a nuclear incident would have "extinguished", then today it will no longer "extinguish".
- Putinites will imitate the desire to end the conflict. – How the Minsk reconciliation was imitated.
But they will not be able to completely stop the conflict.
There will be nuclear "smoldering". - It will gradually smolder - Moscow, but possibly London - after all, Putin will be obliged to respond to the "aggressor".

Achilles' heel of Putin:

But Putin has an "Achilles heel" - this is Crimea.
After 10 years of occupation, Crimea is perceived by Russians as Russian.
No amount of propaganda will be able to convince the Russians otherwise .

No Ponomarev, no "Freedom of Russia" will liberate Russia.
But they will be able to liberate Crimea. The maximum is the Kaliningrad region.

Blitzkrieg "Marshall":

The chance to avoid the death of a million Russians and a nuclear incident lies in making Crimea a thriving democratic showcase - in record time.
It is necessary that military escalation become less profitable for Moscow rulers than constructive rivalry.
Not only for the Americans, but even for the Ukrainians, it is beneficial for Crimea to remain as Russian and independent as possible. Living by their own laws.
With the only limitation - a formal, allied "belonging" to Ukraine. And consisting of Ukraine in a military alliance.
Ukrainians do not need an aggressive Empire that will endlessly kill their children as their neighbor.

Plan - how to avoid nuclear war:

We propose a solution to the Crimean issue:
Independent Crimea, not subject to Kyiv. But the Constitution of Crimea contains 2 invariable provisions:
1. Eternal alliance with Ukraine, including military alliance;
2. Non-alignment with Russia or any other state.

Advantages of this option:

1. Reducing the number of dead Ukrainians and Russians;
2. Maintaining the support of Western countries.
With the introduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Crimea, the number of supporters of a referendum in Crimea under the supervision of the UN will increase in the West. And since the population of Crimea has been subjected to increased brainwashing for 10 years, and also given the increased anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine, they will not support returning to Ukraine.

A federal government - an independent Crimea - can be created right now - in Kyiv.
The liberation of Crimea at the request of the Union government will be perceived both in the West and in Russia not at all like a simple invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

At the same time, among the Russians there are a sufficiently large number of opponents of the Putin regime in order to take Crimea under their full control.

3. Free Crimea will divert the aggression of Putinists from Ukraine.
4. Free Crimea is implementing exactly the scenario that Putinists were afraid of, because of which they started a war against Ukraine.
5. Free Crimea is the best way to transform Russia, it is the best way to prevent the preservation of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation according to the Korean version, the way not to leave children with the periodic massacre that Ukrainians endure today.

6. Precedent for autocracies:

This is the main advantage of the proposed option, due to which this method becomes the method of saving Humanity.
- For all countries with an autocratic regime, parallel - virtual non-state "Governments" are created.
Then these communities take away part of the territory from authoritarian regimes, remaining non-state , and then gradually poach the population of these countries, while expanding the territory.
The main method of the "Civil War" in this case is counter-propaganda.

Russia is convenient here in that it has 2 territorially little connected enclaves with it - the Crimea and the Kaliningrad region.
possible to create initial flat communities not completely virtual, but on the territory of other countries.
For example, it is beneficial for Americans to provide Russian anti-Putin communities with residence - in Alaska, by developing special legislation for them.

"Crush" the beast:

Putin is the main "staple" of the Russian establishment.
Without the adventurist Putin, the risk of a nuclear incident would drop dramatically.

Terrorist Putin killed dozens of times more people than bin Laden.
And it could kill a million more.
Even the Pakistanis did not resent the extrajudicial killing of bin Laden.
At the same time, the liquidation of Putin can be completely judicial - on the principle of the unity of law, the criminalization of military law, the unification of military and civil law.
- Putin should not be judged in The Hague, but at the crime scene - in Ukraine. To judge - in absentia.

" Konnor "

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